Bill Joy on Civilization-changing Events

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I wrote previously about Martin's Rees's excellent book, Our Final Hour, which warns of the dangers of what he calls "bio-error and bio-terror". The New York Times (free registration required) has now carried an interview with Bill Joy (6th June 2004), in which he discusses some aspects of a similar theme. In particular, he's worried about "grey goo", about which he has also written in Wired, and its potential to cause a "civilization changing event".

I first read about "grey goo" in Eric Drexler's Engines of Creation. Drexler is a thinker, practitioner and cheerleader for the nanotechnology movement, and he is working towards the "Assembler Breakthrough". This is the moment when we produce the first nanomachine capable of building other devices (including ones like itself) by assembling them atom-by-atom. The "grey goo" problem arises if (through error or possibly malice) assemblers start voraciously consuming most or all of the matter with which they come into contact. In Drexler's words:

Tough, omniverous "bacteria" could out-compete real bacteria: they could spread like blowing pollen, replicate swiftly, and reduce the biosphere to dust in a matter of days. Dangerous replicators could easily be too tough, small and rapidly spreading to stop—at least if we made no preparation.

Drexler's own conclusion is that: 'we cannot afford certain kinds of accidents with replicating assemblers.'

Bill Joy appears to think that this is a good argument for thinking long and hard before embarking down routes that might lead to the technologies of Drexler's dreams and nightmares. Through the rather different form of his latest novel, Prey, Michael Crichton makes a related point, as he worries about allowing self-replicating, evolving swarms of nanoparticles into the environment. One doesn't have to find every aspect of Crichton's book plausible to feel that he has correctly highlighted some serious dangers in the way that these technologies might develop, especially in a loosely regulated capitalist economy where the pressures on start-ups to generate good returns of capital can be hard to resist.

The perhaps unlikely triumvirate of a leading astronomer, a leading nanotechnologist and a best-selling author all argue that technologies scientists and engineers are working towards today have significant disruptive potential far far the appreciation of almost everyone outside their circles. And in different ways, they all argue that we need to stop and think very carefully how we can manage or control or inhibit the development and application of these technologies. I think we would do well to take their warnings seriously.

Bibliography

Martin Rees, Our Final Hour. Basic Books (New York) 2003.

Eric K. Drexler, Engines of Creation. Fourth Estate (London) 1990.

Michael Crichton, Prey. Harper Collins (London) 2002.